How is Trump’s business policy pressurizing American farmers

A soybean farmer, Q.,, in Calab Ragland, Magnolia, voted for President Donald Trump in 2016, 2020 and 2024. Now, however, they will have to navigate a tariff at a time when the sector is already facing major headwinds.

Ragland works with his wife and three sons and the community has deep roots. His family has been cultivating land for more than two centuries. But in the last few years, they have seen a decline of double digits in crop prices, while the cost of production has increased. Soybean futures have gone below 40% with corn futures over the last three years.

Since the tariff imposed by the other Trump administration increases the pressure in the industry – as well as an anti -retaliation from other countries – he is concerned about the longevity of his business.

“My sons may be potentially the 10th generation if they are able to cultivate,” Ragland, who is also the President of the American Soybean Association, told the CNBC. “And when you have policies that are completely out of our control – that they manipulate our prices 20%, 30%, and flip towards flip, then our cost increases – we will not be able to live in business.”

This is not the first time that farmers have to deal with new tariffs. In Trump’s first term, the trade war with China in 2018 – at a time when Ragland stated that the agricultural economy was “in a much better place than now” – the US agricultural industry costs more than $ 27 billion, and soybeans did about 71% annual loss.

That trade war has caused permanent damage. To date, according to the ASA, the US, the world’s number one buyer, China remains to fully fix its loss in the market share of soybean exports.

“Tariffs break the trust,” Ragland said. “It is very difficult to find new customers, because it is to maintain those that you already have.”

The White House last week imposed 25% tariffs on the goods of Canada and Mexico with an additional 10% duty on Chinese imports.

While Trump reversed the syllabus by delaying a one -month tariff for vehicle manufacturers on Wednesday, then by April 2 stopped the tariff for some Canadian and Mexican items a day later, he said in an interview that on Sunday, it was aired on Fox News that the tariff could be “over time”.

These discounts did not include tariffs on China. China retaliated with its own levy, which mainly targets American agricultural commodities. In particular, US soybeans are now subject to additional 10% tariffs, while the corn is hit with an additional 15% charge.

“We are already at the point that we are unprotected,” Ragland said. “We are basically trying to add an insult to injury to the AG area by adding one by one on Earth?”

Ragland reported that he “appreciates the ability of the President” and wants Trump to succeed for the sake of the country. However, he emphasized that in the industry, especially soybean producers “have no elasticity in our capacity in a business war season that takes away from our lower line.”

“People are upset,” Ragland said about the spirit to other farmers, insisting that all of them need relief through deals that reduce barriers in business and a new five-year comprehensive form bill-law that provides producers with major commodity support programs to producers, among others. “You are talking about the livelihood of the people,” he commented.

Agriculture Secretary Brook Rolins said last week that the Trump administration was allegedly weighing discounts on some agricultural products from tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The adjusted measures of Trump included 10% of tariffs low on potash on Thursday, used for fertilizer.

More than 80% of American farmers’ potash needs are supplied by Canada, Kane Sethz said Natian – A crop input and service provider located in Canada – BMO Global Metals, Mining and Critical Minerals Conference last month.

The company is like 10 million to 11 million tonnes in any year, “as we look at the implications of tariffs for the newution, of course the biggest discussion is around Potash, and this is because we supply ourselves about 40% of that market.” “We believe that the cost of tariff will be given to the American farmer.”

Even in the runup for the implementation of Trump’s tariff, American farmers were playing alarm. Despite reading the latest Purduce University/CME Group AG EG Economy Barometer, showing that farmer spirit improved in February, 44% of the survey respondents revealed that month that business policy for its fields would be the most important in the next five years.

Michael Langmier, agricultural economist at Purdue University, said, “Usually when you ask a policy question, the most important policy is crop insurance,” said Michael Langmier, agricultural economist at Purdue University. “Crop insurance is there with apple pie and baseball. It is a program that has been well liked, as it provides a very effective security trap.”

“The fact is that the crop insurance was one distant to the business policy, the volume speaks,” he also said.

The February survey has also revealed that about 50% of the farmers said that they feel that a trade war is “probable” or “very likely due to significant decrease in American agricultural exports. Langemeier estimated that in mid -February and early March, there was a decline of 33% per acre in net returns for soybeans and corn related to tariffs. This is at the top of the fact that 2025 “was not ending to be an extremely profitable year earlier,” he revealed.

Economists think that in the near period the overall farmer spirit may have a downward adjustment. Nevertheless, a creative result of tariff may be that they accelerate signing a new farm bill, they said.

“Okay, how can you come up with the amount for business payment in the world if you do not even know what quantity is going to be for the form bill,” Langrame said. He hopes that this year some point will be signed a new form bill.

Looking at the upcoming spring season, Bank of America analyst Steve Bayran wrote on 25 February that the tariffs could give rise to “more conservative purchase of crop input”. This would mean the risk of low fertilizer purchase, which can not only affect neutrians, but others like mosaics and CF industryThe analyst noted.

Shares of those companies, as well as other farming related stocks AGCO And DereAll were sold on the heels on 3 March and 4 March.

“I think we have sold AG stock, because we are not going to be beneficial as a farmer this year due to general concerns,” Seth Goldstein said in an interview with CNBC, Seth Goldstein said in an interview with CNBC.

In the last one month, the mosaic has slipped around 8%, while CF Industries has fallen over 8%. Nutans have also lost more than 1%. The AGCO and Deere have performed better at that time, obtained 2% and about 1% respectively.

When it comes to how this trade war will affect American farmers in the long term, Goldstein does not see that meaningful of that effect. He estimates that the global business flow will move and cancel each other over the next two to three years.

Equity strategist said, “Soybean can have close-term effects this year, which are actually sitting in warehouses without buyers, I think we will finally start buying more American soybeans to other countries.” “Maybe China buys more soybeans than Brazil, but perhaps a place like Europe then buys more soybeans than America, and we think there is not so much difference.”

As it stands, Brazil is estimated to be the world’s largest soybean manufacturer ahead of the US for 2024/2025 marketing year, according to the Department of Agriculture, the global production is 40% in this period. On the other hand, for corn, the US is estimated to be topped, leading to 31% of the global production in the marketing year.

Others in Wall Street believe that tariffs will be more resulting on business dynamics.

Christon Owen, an analyst of Openhaimer, has predicted that Brazil is likely to become a primary global manufacturer for both corn and soy, while the US will become a type of older supplier for the world.

He said, “Brazil has more ability to enhance its monitor, especially to increase its share of global grain trade,” he asked CNBC. “Tariffs and some other decisions that are accelerating the administration simply.”