India’s main inflation is more in February: Report

New Delhi: India’s main inflation remains positive despite the rise in industrial metal prices, by a report ICICI Bank Global Market revealed.
The core inflation was more in February, which mainly due to the increase in gold prices. Meanwhile, stable global edible oil prices and a normal monsoon expectations indicate a positive attitude for food inflation in the coming months.
However, uncertainty remains, as global market factors such as trade tariffs and volatile fertilizers can affect food prices.
On the domestic front, the demand-selament outlook also appeared balanced, in which the high base effect helps to keep food inflation moderate in the next year.
In FY 26, inflation is predicted an average of 4.2 percent year-on-year (YOY) on an average as per the target of Apex Bank. The decline in a general monsoon, a stable rupee, and energy prices suggests an auxiliary inflation environment.
However, global factors, including business policies, capital flows and commodity price movements, may result in fresh uncertainty.
In February 2025, India’s retail inflation fell by 3.61 percent at a seven -month low, below 4.26 percent in January. It was primarily inspired by a sharp fall in food inflation, which fell to 3.75 percent annually in February compared to 6.0 in the previous month.
Inflation is expected to control a stable monsoon, stable currency exchange rate and low energy prices in the coming months. While vegetable prices may increase during summer, high base effects from last year should prevent a sharp increase in overall food inflation.
Rabi crop production, especially the expected increase in wheat and grains, should also help stabilize food prices. However, some pressure may appear upwards due to the decline in food oils and sugar prices due to the decline in global market trends and sugarcane production.
Despite the increase in industrial metal prices, a stable Indian rupee and weak global energy demand is likely to keep the main inflation vested. OPEC increased production and low energy consumption in the US led to a decline in oil prices in March, which helped reduce energy -related inflation pressure.
With inflation below 4.4 percent of RBI’s Q4 FY25 launch, analysts believed that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) could opt for interest rate cuts in April. The latest data is now at the Q4 FY25 inflation at 3.9 percent, giving the central bank room to reduce its policy stance.